📉 BEARISH OUTLOOK
When the president talks about military strikes, Bitcoin feels it too. That might sound strange, but it happened again today.
Bitcoin dropped about 3% on October 25, 2026, sliding toward the $81,500 level. That number is not random. It sits right around the average price that investors paid to get into Bitcoin ETFs, which makes it a psychologically important support level. Dropping to your entry price is never a comfortable feeling.
The selling pressure came after President Donald Trump made comments about possible military action against Iran. Those comments rattled US stock markets, which pulled Bitcoin down with them. When investors get nervous about world events, they often sell risky assets first, and both stocks and crypto tend to fall together in those moments.
If you hold Bitcoin or any crypto, this is a reminder that prices do not move in a bubble. Geopolitical news, meaning big global events like conflicts or political tension, can hit your portfolio just as fast as any crypto-specific news. You do not have to follow global politics closely, but it helps to know it exists.
The $81,500 level is worth keeping an eye on. It represents the average cost basis for ETF holders, meaning many investors are sitting right at breakeven. If Bitcoin falls much further below this level, some of those holders may decide to cut their losses, which could push the price down more. On the flip side, holding this level could signal that buyers still feel confident here.
Watch whether Bitcoin can stay above or recover the $81,500 zone over the next few days. Also keep an eye on any further statements from the White House about Iran, because more uncertainty there could mean more selling pressure across both stocks and crypto markets.
When political tensions rise, investors tend to move away from riskier assets like crypto and stocks. Bitcoin often drops alongside stocks during these moments of fear.
The ETF cost basis is roughly the average price people paid when buying into Bitcoin ETFs. When Bitcoin trades near that price, a lot of investors are close to breakeven, which can make the market more sensitive to further drops.
A 3% drop is not unusual for Bitcoin, and analysts think the $81,500 zone is a key level to watch. Whether it holds or breaks will tell us a lot about where confidence stands right now.
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